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New reports show India’s Pharmaceutical Industry Likely to grow to $55 Billion by 2020

A new report by McKinsey & Company report asserts the Indian pharmaceuticals marketplace is likely to expand to $55 billion by 2020.

The report, 'India Pharma 2020: Propelling access and acceptance, realizing true potential,' affirms the marked will quadruple in size from 2009’s Industry revenue of $12.6 billion. The report goes on to state that the pharma market has the potential to reach $70 billion by 2020 if it continues to implement forceful and ground-breaking strategies.

"The scale and complexity of the market is escalating while India is heading for the top tier worldwide," Palash Mitra, Partner at McKinsey & Company, and Leader of the Pharmaceuticals & Medical Products Practice in India has advised.

Identifying existing openings in worldwide pharmaceuticals marketplaces, the report suggests it will be the BRIC countries, a group that includes India that will be the promoters of advancement in upcoming years.

Other nations that make up the BRIC group are Brazil, Russia and China.

India’s pharmaceutical industry has been growing at a 13-14 percent clip for the last half decade. This is a substantial rise from the 9% expansion seen from 2000 to 2005. The report asserted that five new areas will offer up to 45% of the marketplace by 2020. It will be burgeoning from the three billion dollar industry it is today to a $14 to $18 billion one by 2020. These five areas will be made up of patented products, consumer healthcare, biologics, vaccines and public health.

Metro and Tier-1 marketplaces, both have seen expansion of 14-15% yearly in the last half-decade, and will offer more growth to pharma manufacturers. They are 60% of the Indian pharmaceuticals market at this time and appear set to grow to $33 billion in market size by 2020. This can be attributed to the consequences of rapid urbanization and the expansion of the medical infrastructure. Rural markets, on the other hand, will correspond to 25% by 2020, which is an increase from 20% today, while Tier-2 markets will fall from their existing size of 20% down to 15%.

"Access to rural and Tier-2 markets is an issue," said Mitra. "Conventional business models are not going to be successful there. The industry has to create more innovative approaches in order to improve access to healthcare and drugs."

Epidemiological characteristics such as a bigger pool of patients in 2020, increasing accessibility to drugs due to an increase of investment in health-care infrastructure, improved acceptance of novel medicines and the continued production of reasonably priced medicines will be the foundation for this expansion.

Inexpensive medicinal products will make up half of this predicted expansion, with rising incomes as well as expansion in insurance coverage helping to push down the overall cost of drugs. Rapid growth in overall income across the population will add an extra 73 million people to the middle and upper classes, and a total of 650 million people will enjoy health insurance in 2020. Whereas private insurance will have grown by 15% by 2020, the main population will be provided insurance through government sponsored schemes, which will target society’s lowest income groups.

"While growth in the pharmaceuticals market has until now been fueled by expanding affordability, the industry will be obligated to take on more proactive approaches in improving ease of access and positive reception of modern medicine," advised Mitra.

There have been quite a few changes to the pharmaceuticals industry in the last half-decade. The report point to the irregular expansion in the overall healthcare sector, connected with the shifting organization of the industry itself, due to substantial transformation of the industry’s leaders. Four of the chief contenders in the pharmaceutical market right now, counting the current market leader, are relatively new participants. The volatility is also being shaped by a departure from established fundamentals of expansion to more modern types.